Testing for thresholds of ecosystem collapse in seagrass meadows.

Although the public desire for healthy environments is clear-cut, the science and management of ecosystem health has not been as simple. Ecological systems can be dynamic and can shift abruptly from one ecosystem state to another. Such unpredictable shifts result when ecological thresholds are crossed; that is, small cumulative increases in an environmental stressor drive a much greater change than could be predicted from linear effects, suggesting an unforeseen tipping point is crossed. In coastal waters, broad-scale seagrass loss often occurs as a sudden event associated with human-driven nutrient enrichment (eutrophication). We tested whether the response of seagrass ecosystems to coastal nutrient enrichment is subject to a threshold effect. We exposed seagrass plots to different levels of nutrient enrichment (dissolved inorganic nitrogen) for 10 months and measured net production. Seagrass response exhibited a threshold pattern when nutrient enrichment exceeded moderate levels: there was an abrupt and large shift from positive to negative net leaf production (from approximately 0.04 leaf production to 0.02 leaf loss per day). Epiphyte load also increased as nutrient enrichment increased, which may have driven the shift in leaf production. Inadvertently crossing such thresholds, as can occur through ineffective management of land-derived inputs such as wastewater and stormwater runoff along urbanized coasts, may account for the widely observed sudden loss of seagrass meadows. Identification of tipping points may improve not only adaptive-management monitoring that seeks to avoid threshold effects, but also restoration approaches in systems that have crossed them.

Seagrass response to CO2 contingent on epiphytic algae: indirect effects can overwhelm direct effects.

Increased availability of dissolved CO2 in the ocean can enhance the productivity and growth of marine plants such as seagrasses and algae, but realised benefits may be contingent on additional conditions (e.g. light) that modify biotic interactions between these plant groups. The combined effects of future CO2 and differing light on the growth of seagrass and their algal epiphytes were tested by maintaining juvenile seagrasses Amphibolis antarctica under three different CO2 concentrations representing ambient, moderate future and high future forecasts (i.e. 390, 650 vs. 900 µl l(-1)) and two light levels representing low and high PAR (i.e. 43 vs. 167 µmol m(-2) s(-1)). Aboveground and belowground biomass, leaf growth, epiphyte cover, tissue chemistry and photosynthetic parameters of seagrasses were measured. At low light, there was a neutral to positive effect of elevated CO2 on seagrass biomass and growth; at high light, this effect of CO2 switched toward negative, as growth and biomass decreased at the highest CO2 level. These opposing responses to CO2 appeared to be closely linked to the overgrowth of seagrass by filamentous algal epiphytes when high light and CO2 were combined. Importantly, all seagrass plants maintained positive leaf growth throughout the experiment, indicating that growth was inhibited by some experimental conditions but not arrested entirely. Therefore, while greater light or elevated CO2 provided direct physiological benefits for seagrasses, such benefits were likely negated by overgrowth of epiphytic algae when greater light and CO2 were combined. This result demonstrates how indirect ecological effects from epiphytes can modify independent physiological predictions for seagrass associated with global change.

Contemporary reliance on bicarbonate acquisition predicts increased growth of seagrass Amphibolis antarctica in a high-CO2 world.

Rising atmospheric CO2 is increasing the availability of dissolved CO2 in the ocean relative to HCO3 (-). Currently, many marine primary producers use HCO3 (-) for photosynthesis, but this is energetically costly. Increasing passive CO2 uptake relative to HCO3 (-) pathways could provide energy savings, leading to increased productivity and growth of marine plants. Inorganic carbon-uptake mechanisms in the seagrass Amphibolis antarctica were determined using the carbonic anhydrase inhibitor acetazolamide (AZ) and the buffer tris(hydroxymethyl)aminomethane (TRIS). Amphibolis antarctica seedlings were also maintained in current and forecasted CO2 concentrations to measure their physiology and growth. Photosynthesis of A. antarctica was significantly reduced by AZ and TRIS, indicating utilization of HCO3 (-)-uptake mechanisms. When acclimated plants were switched between CO2 treatments, the photosynthetic rate was dependent on measurement conditions but not growth conditions, indicating a dynamic response to changes in dissolved CO2 concentration, rather than lasting effects of acclimation. At forecast CO2 concentrations, seedlings had a greater maximum electron transport rate (1.4-fold), photosynthesis (2.1-fold), below-ground biomass (1.7-fold) and increase in leaf number (2-fold) relative to plants in the current CO2 concentration. The greater increase in photosynthesis (measured as O2 production) compared with the electron transport rate at forecasted CO2 concentration suggests that photosynthetic efficiency increased, possibly due to a decrease in photorespiration. Thus, it appears that the photosynthesis and growth of seagrasses reliant on energetically costly HCO3 (-) acquisition, such as A. antarctica, might increase at forecasted CO2 concentrations. Greater growth might enhance the future prosperity and rehabilitation of these important habitat-forming plants, which have experienced declines of global significance.

Predicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climate.

The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata) inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM) and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery.